Cyprus has been divided since 1974. Greek Cypriots control the southern two-thirds of the island, and Turkish Cypriots control the northern third. USAID, along with the Department of State, asked Nathan Associates to conduct an economic impact study of Cyprus assuming that (1) no unification settlement is reached and (2) a settlement is reached.

We analyzed economic documents and data, interviewed Turkish and Greek Cypriot officials and experts from the public and private sectors and academia, developed a spreadsheet model of the economy, and forecast sector-by-sector development to 2020 in five-year increments

. We concluded that political settlement and integration would improve performance in almost all sectors, especially for the Turkish Cypriot community.

We returned to Cyprus in the spring of 2000 to conduct an Economic Focus Group Session (EFGS) with Cypriot and international experts and USAID and Embassy staff.

Participants met for two days, with the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot contingents meeting separately except for a final session together.

Our final report elaborated on the prospects for a post-settlement Cyprus economy and described reactions to our research and EFGS insights on issues affecting the island’s economic future. The report is helping USAID and the U.S. Embassy define points of economic agreement and dispute and areas of collaboration for the two Cypriot communities.

The drama of Cyprus is far from over . . .
A SEGIR-GBTI project

Details

Office

Arlington

Client

USAID

Dates

1999 - 1999

Country

Cyprus

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